2013年7月13日 星期六

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Investment Trends column

Source: Milwaukee Journal SentinelJuly 13--In an unusual occurrence, the Leuthold Group's Major Trend Index is reading neutral.self storageMost of the time, the index -- which takes into account quantitative measures like momentum and net equity exposure, along with other factors like valuation, interest rates and consumer confidence -- is either bullish or bearish, said Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at the Minneapolis investment research and money management firm.But in late June it slipped into neutral territory, causing Leuthold to cut back its stock exposure, Ramsey said.He suspects this may be a false signal, and that the index will turn bullish in the next few weeks. But the neutral reading reflects many investors' cautious approach to a market that has been climbing for more than four years.Amid that fuzziness, Ramsey has identified some clear trends.-- Winners of the last economic cycle rarely repeat themselves, and the materials and energy stocks that led the bull market that ran from 2002 to 2007 are no exception. Those darlings of the past emerging markets-led commodity boom rate poorly in the Leuthold universe, Ramsey said.-- While precious metals had a great run, there is evidence that it is now over. "We're mostly out of gold, and completely out of silver," Ramsey said.-- There are signs that there may be interesting valuation opportunities in emerging markets, where the consumer staples, consumer discretionary and health care sectors have all had solid performance as construction has shrunk. From the perspective of Leuthold's contrarian approach, emerging markets would look even more appealing if there were clearer signals that investors have given up on them completely, Ramsey said.-- Although neither industry has investors very excited right now, both airline and heal迷你倉h care stocks look attractive, according to Leuthold's analysis.The health care sector, in particular, is at an interesting inflection point, Ramsey said. Despite strong performance for more than two years, uncertainty over the implementation and effects of the Affordable Care Act have kept investors' interest levels low, he said.But Leuthold analysts' work on the sector's valuations, earnings estimates, stock price movement and other factors show relative strength."It has a unique profile of having both value and momentum -- and that's hard to find," Ramsey said. "This may offer an opportunity to buy momentum at a cheap price."Investors typically must stomach high valuations to get stocks with strong upward price momentum, Ramsey added.Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV, $49.88) is an exchange-traded fund that aims to track the performance of the health care sector. The fund's top holdings are Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer Inc., Merck & Co. Inc., Gilead Sciences Inc. and Amgen Inc., according to Morningstar Inc.The biggest risks with holding this fund involve uncertainties about how the Affordable Care Act will play out, and the potential of a so-called valuation trap, where stock prices fail to rise, or a rapid shift in technical signals that investors don't pick up on, Ramsey said.The fund's shares have a 52-week trading range of $37.18 to $50.40. They have potential to outperform the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the next 12 months, Ramsey said.ABOUT THISThe Journal Sentinel focuses on one Wisconsin money manager or analyst in this weekly feature, looking at a trend that helps investment pros make their decisions.Copyright: ___ (c)2013 the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Visit the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel at www.jsonline.com Distributed by MCT Information Services文件倉

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