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Australia needs a leader who dares to tell its old ally America what its people may not want to hear: that the region needs America to learn to get along with China.迷你倉出租 Could Tony Abbott be that man?IF THE opinion polls are right, Australia will get a new leader this weekend.They predict that the Liberal-led coalition will defeat Labor in the general election being held today.If so, Mr Tony Abbott will replace Mr Kevin Rudd as prime minister only three months after Mr Rudd returned to the job from which his own party expelled him three years ago.At first glance, this looks like a backward step for Australia's foreign policy, and especially for its all-important engagement with Asia. Mr Rudd is an acknowledged foreign policy expert who speaks good Mandarin.In contrast, Mr Abbott has little knowledge and seemingly little interest in foreign affairs. His few statements on the subject have tended to focus mostly on Australia's links with the United States and Britain. He has put particular emphasis on the idea of the "Anglosphere", which seems to loom larger than Asia in his thinking about Australia's place in the world.On Wednesday, late into the campaign, Mr Abbott did try to burnish his Asian credentials. In an interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, he said Asia would be his top foreign policy priority if he won office and that his first visit would be Indonesia. He also picked China, Japan and South Korea as travel priorities."Only after our regional and trading partners have been suitably attended to would I make the traditional trips to Washington and London," he said."Decisions which impact on our national interests will be made in Jakarta, in Beijing, in Tokyo, in Seoul, as much as they will be made in Washington."There's a sense in which we kind of know what the decisions in Washington or London will be. We can be less certain about decisions that might be made in Jakarta and Beijing."The John Howard yearsAUSTRALIA'S last Liberal prime minister, Mr John Howard, was often seen as having downgraded Australia's Asian diplomacy in favour of closer links to America.Mr Abbott served under Mr Howard and clearly looks to him as a model and mentor. So it is natural to assume that Mr Abbott's foreign policy would simply follow Mr Howard's example. But this is not the whole story, and it might be seriously oversimplifying Australia's likely foreign policy path under an Abbott government.First, Mr Howard's foreign policy was more complex, nuanced and effective than his reputation allows. It is true that he was very close to Washington, and especially to then President George W. Bush, and that he took much less interest in South-east Asia than his more visionary predecessor, Mr Paul Keating.But Mr Howard was very effective in managing and building what became during his decade in office Australia's most important Asian relationship - with China.What is not often realised is how far Mr Howard took Australia towards accepting China not just as a major economic force but as a growing strategic and political power in Asia. Mr Howard quickly learnt not to let his enthusiasm for Washington get in the way of his determination to build relations with Beijing. As an ally of America, he was also careful to do nothing that would displease China.Of course, in Mr Howard's day, this was easier than it might be now. Under Mr Bush, America was consumed by the war on terror and took little interest in Asia. So no one in Washington really worried about what Mr Howard did with China as long as Australia gave the support America craved in Iraq and Afghanistan.And this leads us to the second reason why there could be more to Mr Abbott's foreign policy than people expect. The times are different. Since the Liberal-National coalition last held of迷你倉ice, China has stopped hiding its ambitions and biding its time, and has instead begun overtly challenging American primacy in Asia.Washington's attention has pivoted back to Asia as a result, and it is urging friends and allies in the region to support US primacy and resist Beijing's challenge. Inevitably, China is pushing back, leading to escalating rivalry and subjecting other regional countries to an uncomfortable tug-of-war.Under both Mr Rudd and his predecessor, Ms Julia Gillard, Australia's Labor government has done its best to pretend that this is not happening. It has clung to Mr Howard's old slogan that "Australia does not have to choose between America and China". That used to be true in Mr Howard's day, but not any more.If Mr Abbott becomes prime minister, he will find, as Ms Gillard and Mr Rudd have found, that Washington is becoming more and more demanding of its old ally. For the first time since the Vietnam War, Australia's standing in Washington now depends on its willingness to support America against China in Asia, not its willingness to send small military contingents to the Middle East.That means Australia can no longer do whatever America wants without sacrificing the economic relationship on which Australia's future prosperity depends.And in the longer term, as China's wealth and power grows, Canberra can no longer assume that America will always be there as the region's dominant power and the ultimate guarantor of Australia's security. Australia faces some very delicate and important choices indeed over the next few years.How then would Mr Abbott as prime minister respond to this truly momentous foreign policy challenge?Nothing he has said so far gives any real clue, because both sides in the election campaign have chosen to avoid the whole question. In fact the only foreign policy issue so far mentioned in the campaign has been Syria's chemical weapons crisis.But Mr Abbott's statements on Syria might give us a clue to his approach. While Mr Rudd has fervently supported calls for international action, Mr Abbott has been more circumspect, stressing the complexity of the issue and making clear his reluctance for Australia to get involved, even in support of the US.Domestic politicsTHIS suggests that Mr Abbott's enthusiasm for supporting America is tempered by a realistic pragmatism and a keen eye for Australia's own interests - just as Mr Howard's was. And in positioning Australia between the US and China, Mr Abbott might also, like Mr Howard, be less constrained by domestic politics than his Labor opponents have been.In Australian politics, the Liberal Party is always seen as the natural custodian of national security, including the US alliance, while Labor must work hard to show the electorate that it can be trusted on these issues.Ironically that makes Labor much more cautious about the alliance, because it fears being accused of endangering it. The Liberals have no such concern. Mr Abbott can therefore afford to take bigger risks in managing relations with Washington.This could be central to Australia's future. Australia needs a leader who is willing to tell Washington things that people there do not want to hear.Australia depends on America remaining a strong strategic player in Asia, but it also depends on America being willing to find a way to get along with China - and that means encouraging it to share power with China to some degree.Otherwise the tug of war in which Australia is caught between its primary ally and its major trading partner will only get worse.Mr Abbott may be the leader who can deliver that message in Washington.stopinion@sph.com.sgThe writer is professor of strategic studies in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University in Canberra.儲存倉